Global Renewable Energy Boom to Match Power Capacity of Major Economies by 2030

A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights a dramatic increase in global renewable energy capacity, forecasting that by 2030, new installations will match the current combined power capacity of major economies like China, the European Union, India, and the United States. Driven primarily by solar energy, renewables are on track to meet nearly half of global electricity demand by the end of the decade.

According to the Renewables 2024 report, global renewable capacity is expected to expand by over 5,500 gigawatts (GW) between 2024 and 2030—almost three times the growth seen in the previous six years. China is projected to lead this surge, accounting for nearly 60% of all new renewable capacity, followed by India, which is anticipated to grow its renewables at the fastest rate among major economies. By 2030, China is set to possess almost half of the world’s renewable power capacity, up from one-third in 2010.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology alone will drive 80% of the anticipated growth in renewables, bolstered by large-scale solar projects and the rising adoption of rooftop installations across both commercial and residential sectors. The wind energy sector is also set for a strong rebound, with its expansion rate expected to double between 2024 and 2030 compared to previous years. Wind and solar PV are already the most affordable options for new power generation in almost every country.

Nearly 70 countries, responsible for 80% of global renewable capacity, are on track to meet or surpass their 2030 renewable energy targets. Although this growth slightly falls short of the target set at COP28 to triple renewable capacity by 2030, the IEA states that the goal is within reach if countries take prompt action. Key steps include enhancing policy ambition in upcoming Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and improving international collaboration to reduce high financing costs in emerging markets.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol notes that renewables are outpacing national targets not only due to environmental and energy security goals but also because they represent the most cost-effective option for new power in most regions. By 2030, he projects that renewables could supply half of global electricity demand, with wind and solar contributing to 30% of global generation alone. The report, however, cautions that governments must improve grid integration to support these variable power sources, reduce curtailment, and expand power grid infrastructure by 25 million kilometres, while also aiming for 1,500 GW of storage capacity by 2030.

The report indicates that renewables will represent 20% of final energy consumption by 2030, up from 13% in 2023. However, the adoption of renewable fuels such as biofuels, biogases, hydrogen, and e-fuels lags behind due to higher costs. These fuels are expected to account for less than 6% of global energy in 2030 without substantial policy support for hard-to-electrify sectors.

Manufacturing for renewable technologies is also growing rapidly. Solar manufacturing capacity is anticipated to exceed 1,100 GW by the end of 2024, double the projected demand, leading to lower module prices, though causing financial strain for some manufacturers due to oversupply. While manufacturing is set to triple in both India and the United States by 2030, costs remain significantly higher outside of China, raising considerations for policymakers to balance local production costs with broader goals like job creation and energy security.